Forget Trump for a Minute...

By Don Varyu

July 1, 2021

Well, that headline isn’t nearly as provocative as I intended. Because the answer is so obvious—every elected Republican in America is afraid of Donald Trump! So, let me change focus a little. Let's try this: should we be afraid of the big, bad Trump?

The answer is: it depends.

Gallup periodically asks voters if they identify as Democrat, Republican or Independent. Last fall, during election week, it was a dead heat— 31% for both the R’s and the D’s. No wonder the election was so close. Then, it changed. In polling right after the Jan. 6 Capitol attack, a big gap appeared--6 points in favor of the Dems, 30 to 24. People were turning off to Republicans in general, and Trump in particular.

This number expands when independents are asked which party they’re leaning towards. In the first quarter of this year, Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents outpaced their GOP counterparts, 49% to 40%.

Finally, the latest approval ratings from Quinnipiac show Trump’s unfavorables standing at 57% of all voters, compared to 37% favorable. If anyone other than Trump carried that same baggage of a 20-point deficit, the GOP hierarchy wouldn’t give a second look.

And now he's lost his voice on both Twitter and Facebook.

In total, this is all very bad news for Donald Trump. And thus, it seems inevitable that the GOP’s decision to ride the Trump train will run right off the rails. Granted, his lunatic followers will remain…but sane America is turning away.
_____

Now, for the counterpoint.

For fun, let’s just say some criminal conviction or malady forces Trump to the sidelines. Voila, problem solved, right? Not at all. Even if he goes away, the stink remains. And that stink is called Trumpism. Metaphorically, think of the difference like this: Trump was the single Chinese bat that first transmitted Covid to a human; Trumpism is the full-blown pandemic.

Here’s what I mean.

Virtually all elected Republicans are cowardly, and often mentally imbalanced. But they’re not stupid. They read the same poll numbers and demographic trends as anyone else. They know they will continue to falter as more young and minority voters enter the mix—while the GOP base literally dies off. There’s not real way around this; their demise is almost inevitable.

But they intend to go down fighting. The GOP is now waging a savage counterattack, intent on making sure it keeps control by any means necessary. Even if the party shrank to just one cranky old racist mumbling about the good old days of Tucker Carlson (in fact, that guy could be Tucker Carlson), that solitary idiot is the one they want running the country. Democracy be damned.

Trumpism is fully at arms, aiming to make this plan work. And it’s got to happen before it’s too late. They’ve pledged allegiance to Trump’s credo of “lie, cheat and steal”, and they’re leveraging it on every front. Much of the battle plan isn’t new. It’s only more virulent:

• Voter suppression. State GOP legislatures are on fire trying to nullify minority voters.

• Redistricting. A different means to the same end: sandwich more conservative Republicans into Congress.

• The filibuster. At all costs, prevent a simple majority from deciding things in the U.S. Senate. Instead of a majority ruling, let’s keep it at 60%. If not, everything going on at the state level could be lost.

And to this list, they’ve now added a new one:

• Ignite the Supreme Court: they’ve packed in enough dopey papal puppets; now it’s time to start pulling their strings.

Tellingly, a new phenomenon of Trumpism has now infected its troops: the end of shame. Where once a reporter or political opponent could uncover a “gotcha” to impale a bad Republican, that day has passed. ”Gotchas” don’t matter much anymore. Yes, paper-thin denials and preposterous evasions will come first. But that’s just for show. No matter how devastating the gotcha—no matter how unfair or unethical or comically hypocritical or even illegal—it will be laughed off. The subtext never changes--“So what? Who’s going to stop me?”

Welcome to Trumpism.
___

The smart guys who do the Pod Save America podcast recently re-argued their case that the most important divide in American politics is not between Republicans and Democrats, but between those who are paying attention and those who aren’t.

Sadly, Trumpism is currently winning on that count. We are a nation exhausted by both Covid and politics, and it’s understandable to seek some relief. But as Democrats relax, the Big Lie keeps expanding.

Where’s the counterbalance from the clear majority of Americans who despise both Trump and his ways? How do we get more people to pay attention again?

Fortunately, there’s time to figure that out.

We’d better.

# # #

# # #

3 Things: Voting Rights and the Fever Swamp

By Don Varyu

June 16, 2021

Every sane American recognizes the sham of Trump’s “Big Lie”—his childish tantrum claiming he really won the 2020 election. It doesn’t matter if this qualifies technically as a lie—after all, he may be crazy enough to actually believe he won. It also doesn't make a difference in terms of impact--it's a falsehood all the same. And falsehoods matter.

I bring this up to point out related falsehoods to the Big Lie in terms of voter suppression efforts that are already doing damage at the state level. But these falsehoods come not from the right, but from the resurgent fever swamp of liberal anger. Endless rants by so-called Democratic “activists” have now infected the wider pool of left-leaning politics and media. The result is a feeding frenzy surrounding the White House.

Here are three oft-repeated messages that are problems--and all-too-typical of the Dems' circular firing squad:

(1) “Biden is the problem!”
When the President arrived to deliver a speech in Philadelphia this week, there were people outside protesting against him. But not nuts from the far right. They were liberal activists claiming he just wasn’t speaking out enough on voter suppression. Ironically, inside he was speaking out on voter suppression:

“Make no mistake. Bullies and merchants of fear…peddlers of lies…are threatening the very foundation of our country. The 21st century Jim Crow assault is real.”

Afterwards, liberal cable hosts and their pundits begrudgingly admitted the words were probably OK… but to sway the public, he needed “more passion!” This is entirely misguided, and misses the whole point. The public was not the intended audience. (Anyway, nothing he could have said would swing the votes of even a tenth of a percent of the electorate; left, right or middle.) Biden knows the only audience that matters consists of a couple Democratic senators who’ve come out against both of the two pending federal voting rights bills. Those bills could negate the states' crimes. These few senators are the people he has to convince. Which leads us to falsehood #2…

(2) “Be like LBJ!”
This cry quickly spread through the fever swamp. “Look what LBJ did—he passed both the Civil Rights Act and the Voting Rights Act by motivating the public!” Again, totally wrong.
Passage of those Acts had nothing to do with a president urging protests or making impassioned speeches. That was already coming from Martin Luther King and others. LBJ’s conclusive work was done behind closed doors, away from public scrutiny. He leveraged personal persuasion on former Senate colleagues from the segregated South who could not understand how he could turn away from their “southern cause.” They did not see where his heart was. What they did see, according to masterful biographer Robert Caro, was a campaign of kidding, cajoling, arguing, and logic—and if that failed, a single threat: “Hey, if we don’t give this to them now, they’re gonna be back in a year or two demanding twice as much.” Not exactly Jefferson-level idealism…but it worked.
Which leads us to our current moment. One of the reluctant Democratic senators, Joe Manchin, is reported to have communicated to Biden the following message (paraphrased here): “Look, don’t pressure me in public--especially on the filibuster, alright? What are you going to do--primary me? Find someone further left to run against me in West Virginia? Good luck with that. And what if that leftie does beat me? Do you think that guy will have a chance against whoever the GOP runs? When you lose that seat, you'll also lose the Senate. McConnell’s back in charge…and all of your agenda is toast. So back off.”
It's a harsh reality lost on too many on the left.

(3) “Do more!”
Ok, great. What do you suggest? We’ve spent more than a decade with Republicans slamming every single Democratic plan--without even bothering to respond with a counterproposal. They are just bomb throwers. So maddening!

And now, some on the left are doing exactly the same thing. “We don’t know what you should do—just do it!" Somewhere, Trump is smiling.
___

Granted, Biden may not have LBJ’s powers of persuasion. We’ll find out. But his off-the-record conversations with Manchin and a couple others are the only chance we’ve got to bypass the filibuster for the purpose of securing American voting rights. This should be obvious to everyone.

This is my message to all the eager and frustrated staffers and journalists and cable pundits and academics luxuriating in the fever swamp. You are right to be angry. So am I. Because no cause is more important right now than defeating voter suppression at the state level. And only a federal law can do that.

But stop for a minute and ask yourself this: is your outrage actually hurting Biden’s chances--are you, in fact, part of the problem? If you say no, that your self-indulgence and bloviation will somehow help, then I guess have at it.

On the other hand, if you think twice, maybe you’ll re-aim your fire in the right direction. At all the racist GOP Congressmen and Governors and state legislators who are trying to lynch democracy. Please, don’t be unwitting tools in their cause.

Or...at the very leas...please come up with a coherent idea of what you’d like Biden to do. Juist one.

# # #

# # #

Who's Afraid of the Big Bad Trump?

By Don Varyu

June 9, 2021

Well, that headline isn’t nearly as provocative as I intended. Because the answer is so obvious—every elected Republican in America is afraid of Donald Trump! So, let me change focus a little. Let's try this: should we be afraid of the big, bad Trump?

The answer is: it depends.

Gallup periodically asks voters if they identify as Democrat, Republican or Independent. Last fall, during election week, it was a dead heat— 31% for both the R’s and the D’s. No wonder the election was so close. Then, it changed. In polling right after the Jan. 6 Capitol attack, a big gap appeared--6 points in favor of the Dems, 30 to 24. People were turning off to Republicans in general, and Trump in particular.

This number expands when independents are asked which party they’re leaning towards. In the first quarter of this year, Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents outpaced their GOP counterparts, 49% to 40%.

Finally, the latest approval ratings from Quinnipiac show Trump’s unfavorables standing at 57% of all voters, compared to 37% favorable. If anyone other than Trump carried that same baggage of a 20-point deficit, the GOP hierarchy wouldn’t give a second look.

And now he's lost his voice on both Twitter and Facebook.

In total, this is all very bad news for Donald Trump. And thus, it seems inevitable that the GOP’s decision to ride the Trump train will run right off the rails. Granted, his lunatic followers will remain…but sane America is turning away.
_____

Now, for the counterpoint.

For fun, let’s just say some criminal conviction or malady forces Trump to the sidelines. Voila, problem solved, right? Not at all. Even if he goes away, the stink remains. And that stink is called Trumpism. Metaphorically, think of the difference like this: Trump was the single Chinese bat that first transmitted Covid to a human; Trumpism is the full-blown pandemic.

Here’s what I mean.

Virtually all elected Republicans are cowardly, and often mentally imbalanced. But they’re not stupid. They read the same poll numbers and demographic trends as anyone else. They know they will continue to falter as more young and minority voters enter the mix—while the GOP base literally dies off. There’s not real way around this; their demise is almost inevitable.

But they intend to go down fighting. The GOP is now waging a savage counterattack, intent on making sure it keeps control by any means necessary. Even if the party shrank to just one cranky old racist mumbling about the good old days of Tucker Carlson (in fact, that guy could be Tucker Carlson), that solitary idiot is the one they want running the country. Democracy be damned.

Trumpism is fully at arms, aiming to make this plan work. And it’s got to happen before it’s too late. They’ve pledged allegiance to Trump’s credo of “lie, cheat and steal”, and they’re leveraging it on every front. Much of the battle plan isn’t new. It’s only more virulent:

• Voter suppression. State GOP legislatures are on fire trying to nullify minority voters.

• Redistricting. A different means to the same end: sandwich more conservative Republicans into Congress.

• The filibuster. At all costs, prevent a simple majority from deciding things in the U.S. Senate. Instead of a majority ruling, let’s keep it at 60%. If not, everything going on at the state level could be lost.

And to this list, they’ve now added a new one:

• Ignite the Supreme Court: they’ve packed in enough dopey papal puppets; now it’s time to start pulling their strings.

Tellingly, a new phenomenon of Trumpism has now infected its troops: the end of shame. Where once a reporter or political opponent could uncover a “gotcha” to impale a bad Republican, that day has passed. ”Gotchas” don’t matter much anymore. Yes, paper-thin denials and preposterous evasions will come first. But that’s just for show. No matter how devastating the gotcha—no matter how unfair or unethical or comically hypocritical or even illegal—it will be laughed off. The subtext never changes--“So what? Who’s going to stop me?”

Welcome to Trumpism.
___

The smart guys who do the Pod Save America podcast recently re-argued their case that the most important divide in American politics is not between Republicans and Democrats, but between those who are paying attention and those who aren’t.

Sadly, Trumpism is currently winning on that count. We are a nation exhausted by both Covid and politics, and it’s understandable to seek some relief. But as Democrats relax, the Big Lie keeps expanding.

Where’s the counterbalance from the clear majority of Americans who despise both Trump and his ways? How do we get more people to pay attention again?

Fortunately, there’s time to figure that out.

We’d better.

# # #

# # #

Biden Oozes

By Don Varyu

March 11, 2021

Some Presidents ooze. FDR oozed defiance (to attacks from the wealthy and Wall Street, he replied, “I welcome their hatred!”) Kennedy oozed charisma. Reagan oozed a sunny veneer over a core of early dementia. Trump simultaneously oozed both bombast and insecurity.

Joe Biden oozes, too. He oozes competence.

He has never been, and will never be, a gifted speaker. He sometimes gets mixed up. But the message that underlies every appearance is constant: “I know how to do this.”

That’s because he’s spent decades learning what works and what doesn’t in government. To Reagan’s assertion that “government is the problem”, Biden’s implied response is always the same: “no, the nation has problems, and I can see a way for government to help fix them.” For my money, this was the right note to swing him both a nomination and a presidency. Between the extremes, the electorate's middle ground trusted him. They understood, for example, that no matter how good your dentist is, at the critical moment you don’t want that dentist doing your heart bypass. Competence counts.

So far, Biden’s picked most of the low-hanging fruit, overturning the preposterous executive orders that Trump issued mainly to energize his base. But passage of the $1.9 trillion stimulus bill was not easy. At least two senators in his own party promised to vote against it, and thus seal its defeat. But somehow those threats disappeared. Behind closed doors, Biden’s team pulled the right levers to bring them both into the fold. It was the kind of thing that Lyndon Johnson did better than anyone else. Biden knows those moves.

Of course, the going will get rougher. The extent to which parliamentary moves can again be deployed is unclear. And with exactly zero Republican Congressmen and Senators voting for the bill, the GOP seems chained to obstruction, no matter how much it hurts them. Which means the vital conversations we’re now having about policy may soon descend again into ones on politics, featuring speculation on who in 2022 will be rewarded or penalized for their votes. Dramatic conflict is catnip for the media, and they’re already getting twitchy.

But for the moment, let’s take a minute to celebrate: up with competence!# # #

Read the Cascade Rev

Trump Resurgent--Here's Why

By Don Varyu

Mau 17, 2021

Democracy Corps is out with new polling on prospects for the 2022 off-year elections (no surprise—this early look says it’s going to be very close). More compelling is its heavy emphasis on examining the current state of the Republican Party. (Again, no surprise—it’s Trump’s party. Fully 75% of
Republicans stand proudly behind him, with only a quarter in opposition.) In its numbers, Democracy Corps shows that Trump has lost no support since the last election, and his followers are the most interested and enthusiastic over what will happen in November of next year.

But one finding distinctly stands out: of all GOP respondents, the two most sizeable groups are categorized as “Trump Loyalists” (43%) and “Evangelical Loyalists” (24%). Thus, here again, the inevitable question is shouted: “how can people who call themselves evangelicals support this guy, who’s the most sinful man ever to run for president?!”

The answer is hidden in the formulation of that question. That's because “sin” is not the deciding characteristic for evangelicals--not by a long shot. Evangelicals believe in the infallibility of the Bible, and many say you’re not really worthy unless you publicly declare yourself “born again”. You need to surrender to succeed.

This alignment of evangelicals with Trump is no accident. We wrote about the connection more than three years ago in “True Believers.” It’s an article based on a book of the same name written in 1951 by America’s most insightful forgotten author, Eric Hoffer. I recommend reading the whole thing for full understanding, but here are a few excerpts which chillingly apply both to white evangelical Christians and the Trump cultists:

What mass movement leaders have in common:
“…a joy in defiance; an iron will; a fanatical conviction that he is in possession of the one and only truth; a capacity for passionate hatred; contempt for the present; a delight in symbols, spectacles and ceremony; a disregard of consistency and fairness…”

One common ploy of mass movements leaders:
“Not only does a mass movement depict the present as mean and miserable, it deliberately makes it so.”

On the nature of the followers of mass movements:
“A rising mass movement attracts and holds…not by its doctrine and promises, but by the refuge it offers from the anxieties, unfairness and meaninglessness of an individual existence. To the frustrated, freedom from responsibility is more attractive than freedom from restraint. They are eager to barter their independence for relief from the burdens of deciding and being responsible for inevitable failure. They willingly abdicate the directing of their lives to those who want to plan, command and shoulder all responsibility.”\

Finally, on the one decisive tool that all dictators must employ:
“All mass movements strive to impose a fact-proof screen between the faithful and the realities of the world. It is the believer’s ability to shut his eyes and stop his ears to facts that do not deserve to be either seen nor heard…”

This all sounds dauntingly familiar and depressingly formidable. To be sure, the fight is not over.

Hitler died in his bunker. Trump sits scheming in his.

# # #

(Hoefer’s full book is available here.)me to tell the full version.

# # #

Will the GOP Commit Suicide?

By Don Varyu

February 12, 2021

As Republicans in the Senate decide on whether to vote to impeach Donald Trump, a larger determination will be made. Will the GOP—as it’s been defined for more than a century—cease to exist?

That all depends on what those Republican senators choose to do. Simply put, if they vote to convict (which seems highly unlikely), they have a chance for revival. But if they acquit, they may be slipping their collective neck into the noose.

To explain, let’s take a quick look backwards. In 2010, when the first class of hypocritical Tea Party brats joined Congress, it already seemed like America was moving to a three-party political system. These folks weren’t Republicans—they were their own thing. Into the Senate that year marched Marco Rubio and Nicki Haley and Ron Johnson and Mike Lee and Rand Paul. These poseurs had no use for the existing GOP, and they were more than happy to point that out. At first, the old liners grimaced and ignored them, convinced they were a passing fad. But then good old boy John Boehner was forced out of party leadership by Eric Cantor (a self-proclaimed Tea Partier). Next, Cantor himself was hoisted on his own petard for insufficient purity, losing a primary election to a fully baked radical named David Brat. (Really.)

The old liners weren’t amused anymore. The Tea Party decided to rebrand as the Freedom Caucus, with additional founders like Mark Meadows, Jim Jordan and Nick Mulvaney. You know these names because they’ve all slithered to the highest levels of American government, thanks to Donald Trump. The clearest example of what’s happened is Meadows. He was Trump’s last chief of staff, and he was also the guy who introduced the resolution to dump Boehner in 2015. In just five years, the GOP had been transformed...or reformed…or deformed, depending on how you look at it. Today it uncomfortably houses both the old-line conservatives and the Trumpies. And when the terrorists stormed into the Capitol yelling, “HANG MIKE PENCE!!", the divorce seemed final. But papers have not yet been signed.

The remnants of the Republican party and the Trump party are really two different things. They hang together under the GOP banner because they need each other. The Tea Partiers know they have no clue how to govern, and the old liners know they can’t get reelected without the crazies. However, the remaining old liners also know how to count votes, and they see the deck stacked against them. The impeachment vote will decide the future of this unholy alliance.
___
Here’s what I mean.

Days before the last election, PEW Research reported that American voters self-identified as follows: Independents 34%; Democrats 33%; and Republicans 29%. Okay, that's a pretty even split of percentage points. Clearly, neither of the parties can go it alone. Both the GOP and the Democrats need to attract as many of those independents as they can in order to win a national election.

The table below is my estimate of how things stand right now. But the table needs some setup. It presents two different scenarios (for a national election). The first considers a traditional race between the two current parties...blue vs. red...on the top two lines.

The second scenario assumes a division of the current GOP into two new parties. Call them the Trump party, and a "third party" of the traditional GOP. That means the Dems against the the maximum capabilities of the two grey bars at the bottom of the table. Put another way, imagine Trump running again, or maybe Cruz or Hawley on that line. And for the new third party on the bottom, think of someone who reminds you of McCain or Romney.

The table divides percentage points for each GOP party, guesstimating their maximum appeal:

Along the top line, I’m suggesting that Democrats have the same approximate appeal in either scenario--running against either a continued Trump + old line combo...or against the Trump party and the new third party separately.

So, each of the current percentage points is divided among the scenarios:

• Of the total 34 independent points available in that column, the Democrats here take 24, because so many indies will remain turned off by the Capitol insurrection and by Trump. To that, add all of the 33 Democratic points, and peel off seven of the GOP’s 29. That’s means a maximum of 64% of the electorate. (To repeat, this is best case.)

• The second line assumes a continued GOP does not divide—it remains the sham marriage between the old line conservatives and the Trump true believers. I think so many independents are turned off by Trump that it means the current GOP can only get 10 of those 34 independent points. They gather no Democrats. But lets say 22 of the 29 GOP points remain loyal. (The remaining “never-Trumpers” go elsewhere).That gets the current GOP just 32% of the vote. That's abysmal.

• Next, lines three and four ask what happens if the GOP breaks into a Trump party and a distinct third party. The Trumpies will turn off virtually all independents; but let’s give them five points anyway. They get no Democrats, and maybe 25 of the 29 GOP points stay put. That adds up to only 30 points—even worse than the current combed GOP. Ouch.

• Finally, what about the clean-break, third party run by GOP Trump-haters? Here, the GOP essentially returns to its roots, deliberately tossing Trump to the curb. Thus, they might get half of the 34% indie vote. They could also steal, say, five points from Democrats if they run an appealing, middle-of-the-road candidate. And let’s say they capture 27 of the 29 GOP points. That takes this third party all the way up to 49%--clearly the best option for the GOP.

  ___
  
  Now, maybe you realize the giant hole in this table. A Trump wing and a third-party wing can’t both maximize their vote totals as shown here. (In other words, Trumpies can't get 25 points from Republicans, and the new third party 27 at the same time--there's only a total of 29 to go around). Their "maximums" only occur if the other option doesn't exist.
  
  But consider those two options. It seems like the only viable one for the GOP is to banish Trump altogether. Look what happens if they continue to embrace him--lines two or three. They get crushed. On the other hand, the bottom line offers a more compelling case to the political middle, including both independents and some Democrats.
  
  Now, consider all three of those GOP lines. The logical choice is a return to normalcy. But in order for that to happen, the current GOP senators have to make a stand now. They'd have to set aside their selfish, short term election needs and send Trump packing. In other words, convict him. If they let go, his stench will loom over their party for the next four years. They'd be fitting themselves for the noose.
  
  Or, put another way, maybe the best thing for Democrats is for impeachment to fail. In that case, they can run the same horrific videos from inside the Capitol invasion for the next four years, against any Republican in the House or Senate who voted to protect the man the independents hate.
  
  Have fun running against that.
  

# # #

On Unity and Impeachment

By Don Varyu

February 3, 2021

If you’ve ever seriously scraped yourself, or cut yourself deeply, you know the protocol. You clean the wound, sanitize it, then dress it appropriately. It’s nothing new; Louis Pasteur and others figured it out in the mid-1800’s. Of course, you might get better just by leaving it alone. Or the germs invited into your bloodstream could kill you.

The gash inflicted on out body politic on January 6th was a wound not to be ignored; it threatened the lifeblood of democracy. Germs from one branch of government declared war on another, as human pathogens from the Trump malignancy ran rampant through the Capitol.

The vast majority of elected officials in the political party to which those pathogens belong refuse to acknowledge the danger. They just hope somehow the disease will cure itself.

This occurs as those same Republicans are desperately calling for “unity”, as if the duly elected president and Congressional majorities will join them in refusing to treat the wound. That’s not going to happen.

There is no chance that Donald Trump will be convicted by 67 members of the Senate. But that’s not really the point. What will happen is that every member of that chamber will be called on to vote on whether Trump’s incitement of a direct attack was a good thing, or not. They will be asked whether the deaths and destruction in the Capitol were worth some higher cause. And if so, what that cause is.

Scientists have a new imaging process called a PCR that looks for viruses right inside our DNA. In that sense, impeachment is the PCR for our democracy. It allows voters to see how deeply the Trump infection has spread—and where exactly we need to attack it.

Once this wound is healed, we can talk about unity. For now, Republicans need only worry about whether they truly care about our country.

You are either a true patriot or a Trump pathogen.

# # #

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Trump's True Wall

By Don Varyu

Jaiuary 9, 2021

Imagine a wall. It’s made of bricks—74,222,958 of them. That makes it long and high and imposing.

Now imagine each of those bricks represents one of the people who voted for Donald Trump. That’s how many there were. Those bricks don’t all look alike. In fact, many are distinct and misshapen. It’s more like the craggy rock wall of an Irish farmer than the clean, uniform side of a church or school.

In fact, you’d almost swear that wall would fall down under its own weight. But it doesn’t. Because it’s bound by a mortar that’s never failed. In fact, it’s the bond that restrains all of America.

The mortar in Trump’s wall is racism.

———

If you want to enrage a Trump voter, the easiest way is to call him a “racist”. He’ll sputter and explode. “Not the truth!”, he’ll scream. More like, the truth hurts.

In fairness, we concede that not every one of those bricks is marked “KKK” or “confederate flag” or “state’s rights.”  Some are “normal” people who you wouldn’t identify as much different from yourself. But they are different. Because they chose to join that wall, and thus they share its binding shame.  

Over the decades, cracks have formed. There was the Emancipation Proclamation…and the Voting Right Act…and school desegregation. But the wall was mended. There was always a fresh pail of fears to spackle any weakness. What’s been so carefully tended since 1619 was never going to crumble all by itself.

—-

But here’s the thing. There’s a tool called a mason’s hammer. It’s particularly designed for brick work: heavy and blunt on one end, pointed and piercing on the other. To be sure, one hammer isn’t going to do much damage to a wall with 74,222,958 bricks—especially if that wall is firmly bound.

But when a mosque is torched, or a hangman’s noose symbolically displayed, or a faux patriot storms into our Capitol wearing a t-shirt reading, “Camp Auschwitz” …more hammers are raised.

Once more, these are times that try men’s souls.

To pass the trial, pick up your hammer.

# # #

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Redcoats and Brownshirts

By Don Varyu

Jaiuary 6, 2021

Our U.S. Capitol has been invaded before. In 1814, British troops marched into a largely undefended Washington and set fire to the Capitol, White House, the Treasury building and several other sites. President Madison and all other leaders were forced out of the city.

This set the stage for future national tragedies, including Pearl Harbor and 9/11, with foreigners horrifying Americans by doing damage on Americans and American properties.

What makes today different is that the damage done to the Capitol this time was not authorized by foreign interests, but by our own President. The terrorists were egged on by the same government they pretended to protest. A short time earlier, Trump stood on a podium and told the crowd, “you’ll never take back our country with weakness. You have to show strength, and you have to be strong.”

Previously, on the same stage, his odious son, Don Jr., warned wavering Republicans in Congress, “we’re coming for you!” And deluded comic sidekick Rudy Giuliani instructed that it was time for, “trial by conflict.” In any dictatorship, those are obvious marching orders. So march—and destroy--they did.

Long before Adolph Hitler came to power in Germany, the armed radicals who would come to be known as his “storm troops”, his “brownshirts”, had already formed. Hitler realized their value, and warmly embraced him. They grew to an armed force of some three million men, and were unleashed to terrorize designated businesses and civilians. They were instrumental in beginning the shipment of Jews to the concentration camps. Hitler understood the value of an unleashed and fully armed horde, acting on his behalf.

That was a different thing. It was citizen against citizen. The threat came from within. One group used brute force. The other could only flinch.

In the end, both the redcoats and the brownshirts disappeared.

In the case of the British, a couple days after setting fire to D.C., as the flames continued, a torrential storm (quite likely a hurricane) struck Washington. It not only put out the fires, but also did serious damage to the English ships moored on the Potomac. The soldiers were recalled to perform the necessary repairs on the ships, and the English decided, “what the hell. This place is trashed—let’s go.”

In Germany, Hitler grew wary of their size and might of the brownshirts, and became convinced by rival officers that they were out to get him. So he got them first. In the “Night of the Long Knives”, as many as 150 SA leaders were rounded up and executed.

We don’t seem to have either of those options now. Even if there were violent weather bearing down on D.C., the protestors will disappear and will take their prejudices and their vendettas back home.

Unlike Hitler, Trump will never turn on them—they’re his only source of power. After the riot, when he finally spoke, he told them, “we love you!”  Yes, Trump will be gone, but he will never see what the rest of us do—the dire threat this poses to our 245-year-old experiment in democracy.

We survived the burning of Washington…as well as the horrors of Pearl Harbor and 9/11…because we came together to act against terrorists—not to tell them, “we love you!”

Do we have the means, and the intent, to fight the terrorists now?  

There are outright traitors like Cruz and Nunes and Graham. There are four-year enablers like Pence and McConnell and hundreds of others who decided it was worth accepting consistent blunt traumas to democracy in order to serve their own selfish needs. When Congress reconvened, McConnell stood and promised, “criminal behavior will never dominate the work of the United States Congress.” This from the same man who’s blocked the proper work of Congress for his entire leadership.

Do we have the intent to fight?

Yes, Trump is on his way out the White House door. But he’s giving up nothing.  They and his cult anarchists stand defiant. Even now, too many Republicans can’t accept that the mob will eventually turn on them.

Joe, I know you’ve got a hundred messes to clean up. But nothing will matter if we can’t clean up this one.

Metaphorically speaking, it’s time to wield our own long knives of justice against the mob.

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Election Reaction: Final

By Don Varyu

November 20, 2020

Before we turn entirely away from the election (will that ever really happen?), I wanted to throw out three more final reactions—mostly opinions.

(1) Do you still believe in polling? Of course you don’t. Data scientists typically attribute their “misses” to a few factors: “there was an error in the modeling”; “the media overreacted to what we were saying”; and, “we were really right after all.” Dealing here only with that first one, most people have their own theories, e.g., “Republicans won’t talk to pollsters—or if they do, they lie.” A more concrete example of a modeling problem emerged this year with exit polling—where people are asked question as they walk out of polling places. Since Republican voters were far more likely to vote in person than by mail, it’s not hard to see how questions like, “which issues were most important to you?” tend to create answers skewing to the conservative side. In other words, the sample is contaminated.

But here’s a silver lining with polling. Maybe—just MAYBE—media feeling burned will result in less than wall-to-wall coverage on the horse race aspects of elections, and spend at least a little time explaining how candidates differ in their positions on key issues. Once you distinguish between “single payer” health care and “single payer option”, voters might cast more informed ballots. Wouldn’t that be refreshing?

(2) Here’s why Biden won. Two things. First, Democrats voting in the primaries chose the only candidate who could have beaten Trump. The big swing in this election was in suburban (and to a lesser extent) exurban areas. Many of these were “swing” voters who felt comfortable enough with Biden. They would not have felt that way about Bernie or Warren to the left, or Bloomberg or Steyer from the corporate wing.

Secondly—and disturbingly—COVID-19 elected Biden. It was only Trump’s indifference and ineptitude in fighting the virus that swung enough voters to the Democrat. If Trump were only minimally effective, that would have been enough to win him a second term.

(3) Farewell, Trump? Not a chance. Much air is being expended discussing Trump’s “desperate” attempts to hold on to office here in his dying days. This gets it entirely wrong. This is not a pitiful epilogue; it’s a revealing forward. He knows he’s done this time, so these are just his opening salvos in his 2024 campaign. In the interim, he’ll find cable and digital soapboxes to continue screaming about how he was wronged, and why every single thing the Biden administration does will be ruining the country.

Seventy million people already voted for him. And Trump is a much more attractive candidate when he’s attacking rather than playing defense. Furthermore, because this campaign is already unfolding, Republicans in Congress will continue to cower in fear. There will be no “unity” anytime soon. Biden needs two winners in the Senate races in Georgia to realize actual power. Otherwise, Mitch McConnell will continue to run the country.

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Election Reaction: Part 2

By Don Varyu

November 7, 2020

As I write this, Joe Biden stands on the brink of a presidency. Hooray! Aside from all the banner headlines to come, I also have three smaller sidebar thoughts:

(1) Exhaustion. It’s not just the cable news hosts and numbers crunchers—all of America is in a state of exhaustion. What everyone wanted settled on election night has run into the weekend. My reaction? Thank God.

What we spent the week riding was a national cushion--multiple days to get used to an eventual outcome. Which also provided multiple ways to dissipate what otherwise could have been violence in the streets. Of course, I believe the threat existed most in the case of a sudden and sweeping Biden victory. I envisioned the “militias” and their weapons out on the streets. Certainly, that might happen anyway, but I’m convinced to a far lesser extent.

As Trump goes through his own slow-motion process of grieving, so will they. To whatever degree this exhaustion has created national numbness, let it act as a counterbalance to rage.

(2) New heroes. It’s doubtful that any country celebrates its military more than America. But with the advent of COVID-19, we declared a new set of heroes in the form of the “front line” workers trying to save lives inside hospitals and care centers. In the process, they endangered themselves--and some died.

In a smaller, shorter, but still consequential sense, I’d like to nominate a third group of heroes: all the people who showed up at polling places and counting centers to make this monumental and pressure-filled tabulation a shining model of efficiency—and fairness. Their ranks include Democrats, Republicans, and independents. As well as governmental leaders in every state and county who fought to uphold the laws and the Constitution.

Yes, our doctors and nurses help fight for our health. But those election workers helped fight for our democracy.

(3) Emergencies. There are multiple ways that this transition in leadership will be unlike any before it. (For example, how long would it take for you to be assured the entire White House was sanitized down to the underlayment before you moved in?)

More to the point, the pandemic has escalated to new heights. Meanwhile, there is no relief in sight for millions of more Americans who are running out of money. This is the time for true patriots to come together to help each other out. (That means you, too, Mitch McConnell.)

I hope that as part of his acceptance, Biden sincerely offers to meet with Trump any place and any time he wants to mutually and immediately set the course on new solutions. It would be irresponsible to waste two months before diving in.

Why would Trump do this? Maybe he wouldn’t. But it would offer a way to keep him in the spotlight for another sixty days…which, to him, is as vital as oxygen.

I’m hoping to hear the race called as soon as possible.

There is so much work to be done.

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Election Reaction: Part 1

By Don Varyu

November 4, 2020

At this writing, the election is still up in the air. Despite that, there’s an undisputed winner: Trumpism.

Four years of lying, cheating, and stealing…turning tail and running in the face of the pandemic…did nothing to disable Donald Trump. Millions more voted for him this time than four years ago.

But equally important is the fact that no one who slavishly followed him…mimicking his every tactic…was tossed from office. The enemies of democracy, decency and civil discourse were all rewarded by voters for their treachery. Mitch McConnell. Lindsay Graham. David Perdue. Tom Tillis. Joni Ernst. Tom Cotton. Cindy Hyde-Smith. Even Grandma Susan Collins. And more.

Even should Biden move into the White House, these civic terrorists will continue to control the Senate. McConnell will keep polluting the federal judiciary with quack judges, not to mention tabling any bill from the House that could truly help the American people. There is not the slightest reason for them to negotiate with Democrats.

On CNN, Van Jones said that Democrats were demoralized because they didn’t just want to beat Trump—they wanted him clearly repudiated. That didn’t happen. And that pain isn't going away.

It will take a while for Democrats to lick their wounds and decide what to do next. A Biden victory would certainly make us feel better. But it wouldn't make politics any better.

For as far as anyone can imagine, the terms “Republican” and “conservative” now cease to matter. That political party will continue to practice Trumpism long after he has departed.

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Debate 2 Analysis

By Don Varyu

October 22, 2020

My two lifelong buddies both decided they couldn’t watch the second debate; at a certain point, blood pressure matters. Kudos to them.

But for theme—and anyone else who cares—I wanted to do a quick Three Things recap:

1. Trump won. I know many people don’t want to hear this, but here’s my reasoning:

   —More than 2,200 years ago, Aristotle laid out the three elements of rhetoric: logos (logic and facts), pathos (empathy), and ethos (the character of the speaker). You may think that the facts matter most, but that doesn’t apply to the remaining undecided voters-- at this point less than 10%. For them, ethos matters most. And Trump won on that count. Trump projected power, shrouding his deceit and evasion.

   —His strategy differed this time. Instead of talking over his opponent, he talked over the moderator, Kristen Welker. She was clearly the best of the three so far, but Trump insisted on having the last word on virtually every question. He strutted, and she could not stop him. Biden always looked like "the other guy".

2. Biden was still good. However, his strong points were all under the category of logos. Trump had no good answers on his COVID performance, health care plans or the immigrant children permanently separated from their parents. And his contention that he was the least racist person in the debate hall was laughable. So, in other words, if you read the transcript of the evening, Biden was better. But for every person who does that, several million watched on video, where Trump’s lies and posturing were more persuasive.

3. Bottom line. Because most people have already made up their minds, and tens of millions have already voted, I give Trump a national polling boost of between one and two points. In some states and Senate races, that could matter. But Biden is still in the commanding position.

Of course, I’m curious to see what the polling shows in the next couple of days—and of course, what happens on election day.

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Bikers v. Germs

By Don Varyu

September 11, 2020

South Dakota has a lot to recommend it. The Badlands are must-see topography, especially at sunset. Mount Rushmore is literally and figuratively a monumental work of art. And it’s one of the five least-populous states, which some people think is an attraction all by itself.

Ah, but countering and corrupting all that goodness is the one, long summer week every year when the little town of Sturgis (pop. 6,627) is invaded by a species of sub-humans riding motorcycles. Long hair, tattoo art and unrepressed id are on constant display. And these folks make no secret of where their political sympathies lie:

This year more than 365,000 visited, and in truth, they behaved pretty well—only 50 cycle crashes (five fatalities) and they kept the drug arrests just under 250. Not bad.

And while I may call them subhuman, they look at themselves as superhuman. Other than the 50 crashes, they are virtually indestructible. Especially in the face of some stupid Corvid germs. You would have had a hard time finding a face mask among them…and they practiced the kind of social distancing you’d exercise in a phone booth. These folks laugh in the face of weakness.

Well, I know you’re never going to believe this. But in the weeks following the end of the rally, the two states in America registering by far the biggest leaps in new coronavirus cases were North and South Dakota. Shocking, I know! A study by the University of Colorado estimated that a total of 267,000 new cases of Covid-19 had already occurred for people at the rally…or for the lucky families and friends they visited when they rode back home.

That was just under 20% of all new cases in America in the time period. They’re number one!
--

Do I think those yahoos “learned a lesson”? That they’re not superhuman after all? That pandemics apply to them, too? Of course not. That would require them admitting they were wrong.

Thus, do I feel sorry for the suffering…and the deaths that followed?

Nope. Not one little bit. Not for a single one of them.

Sociologists may describe their group obstinance as herd behavior. Maybe the bikers were aiming for herd immunity.

But for my money, this was pure Darwinism—just thinning the herd.
 

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Klueless in Kenosha

By Don Varyu

August 28, 2020

After George Floyd was murdered, we demanded change. And we trusted there would never be another death like that.

And then there was Jacob Blake.

What’s going on here? Is this just a case where every police department has a few bad (racist) apples? Or is it something bigger? Is it “systemic racism”? Is that really a thing?

Well, I’ve never been a member of a designated minority group, and I don’t have an advanced degree in ethnic studies, so I’ve got no credentials to define that term.
 

But let me take a stab at it anyway.
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I’m not going to deal with the specifics of Kenosha—the Blake execution, or the bad-cop-wannabe who killed two people, and gravely injured another. You know those stories already. Define them any way you want.

What I want to deal with is the response: how did those in authority react? After the original, horrific crime, how did the “city fathers” present to the public?
At first, there was nothing but silence. Only when we heard from Blake’s parents—the barely suppressed rage of his father, and the otherworldly calm of his mother—did authority feel it had to say something. So, they held a news conference. But they didn’t respond.
 

A parade of officials from the city and county and the state of Wisconsin discussed how they were dealing—how they were trying to control the streets.
As for the specifics of the crime itself? Nothing. They explained that, by statute, an independent arm of state government was conducting a full investigation. That was frustrating—but at the same time, you’ve got to admit that an independent arm is better than the police department investigating itself. So, that first news conference ended in fantastical frustration.

The state Attorney General (overseeing the investigative arm) announced (not) helpfully that they would stay silent until the end of the investigation. We'll get back to you in 30 days. 
 

Then a young, pathetic 17-year-old loser named Kyle Rittenhouse entered the picture--with a rifle. He is suspected of answering a call on a Facebook page for member of the “militia” to go to Kenosha and protect the scene. He was a recent front-row participant at a Trump rally. He was happy to admit on camera that he was more than willing to "help" the police.

Quickly, the chief of Kenosha’s police reported that he said, “hell, no”, to all such offers of help.

However, there is also video of a steel-plated, militarized Kenosha police vehicle rolling past a gathering of these creepy militia members, throwing them bottles of water and announcing over a loudspeaker, “we appreciate your help—we really do!”

A short while later...after his murders…Rittenhouse was videotaped walking down the street, hands up, rifle exposed, expecting to be arrested by police. Bystanders said they pointed and yelled, “he’s the shooter!”
 

The police calmly rolled by. No reason to suspect a white guy…even if he was holding an automatic weapon.
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The next day those in charge held another news conference. The Kenosha mayor, the county executive, the chief of police, and county sheriff and the head of the local National Guard explained that everyone was working so well together, and that such acts of violence really didn’t represent the fine people of Kenosha or the surrounding area. That circle jerk lasted for an eternity--everything was fine.
 
And near the end, they said that not only did they STILL have no details on the Blake murder…but they also had no details on the Rittenhouse murders—a local crime that occurred on Kenosha streets. They stood up…walked away…and ignored every question.

So here is the dichotomy. A black man trying to get into his car and drive his three kids away is shot in the back—seven times.

A white loser with an automatic rifle, in the middle of a crime scene, is ignored by the same cops.

Or consider it this way. Citizen A of Kenosha is found lifeless on the street, under the open car door of his SUV, with three young kids inside. Citizen B of Kenosha has phone video identifying the person who shot the victim seven times in the back--call the shooter him Citizen C. 

In normal circumstances, when the police see the video, they identify and immediately arrest Citizen C. They throw him in jail, and, given the nature of his crime, a judge keeps him there until arraignment...or puts him under house arrest with a GPS tracking device. 

But Officer Rustin Sheskey, our Citizen C in this case, is free on administrative leave. He is being pad but doesn't have to show up for work. 
 

Call me stupid, but I think this is what they call systemic racism.

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OK, in my career I’ve been involved instructing people in authority on how to manage stressful situations. Bad news happens for people in power all the time—that’s why they get top jobs, and top pay. They’re in their positions to handle those situations.

The people at that second news conference—five white men—failed in their jobs. They made things worse. They weighed the potential downside to providing anything relevant (lawsuits?...jury bias?) against the compelling need to simply tell the people of Kenosha--and AMERICA--what the hell was really going on.

Shame on them. They are out of touch. They are cowards.

Sure, they don’t see themselves as racists. But they are part of the problem.
 

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(For a full description of what should be happening in police reform, please read Stop Killer Cops--It Can Be Done. )

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Kamala and Carmen

By Don Varyu

July 30, 2020

It has been said that Republicans cannot defeat Democrats; only Democrats can. Undeniably the Democratic party has never displayed the group discipline of their rivals. Fealty to Donald Trump seems to prove that groupthink is a permanent marker for the GOP.

Could that ever be overcome? Could Democrats ever work for their common good?
 

Well, within one 24-hour period the answer seemed to be a resounding, “yes!” …only to be dashed on the rocks of, “here we go again.”
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It’s an overused term, but Joe Biden’s selection of Kamala Harris as a running mate was electric. On hearing the news, most Democrats walked a little taller…and some seemed to go airborne.  And in my mind, rightfully so. She checks a lot of boxes for the party and the nation…but most of all, she will prove to be (by far) the most personally engaging candidate on either ticket. She is an instrument of hope in the mode of Barack Obama.

The selection also negated any realistic static stemming from the ultra-far left concerning her actions as attorney general in California. What she represents in terms of gender, ethnicity and competence will easily trump (pun intended) any negative blowback.
 

You would be forgiven for concluding, “finally—the Democrats have figured this out.”
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But I also want to tell you about another outstanding woman of color, Carmen Best, who just hours before Harris’ announcement made one of her own—retiring as chief of Seattle’s Police Department. As you know, Seattle is progressive to a fault, and Best seemed a perfect choice for her job. A former chief described her as, “…always up, always positive, always direct…the kind of person who would tell you the truth.”

She took commitment to community seriously. She helped oversee the federally mandated program to attack the department’s racial and use-of-force record. When the Black Lives Matter protests began in the city, she made no secret of her sympathies for the cause. She was spotted in plain clothes at weekend prayer rallies supporting BLM.

But unfortunately, you cannot be progressive enough for the bag of mixed nuts otherwise known as Seattle City Council. It contains outright socialists (and also three white men, but we try not to talk about that). When the BLM protests began, the council members fell all over each other, tripping on their own outrage. They immediately voted unanimously to cut the police budget in half.

That lasted until some people with at least minimal levels of sanity talked to them. So, the council tried to talk tough and backtrack at the same time, hoping no one would notice. They dramatically announced slashing a whopping 100 positions from a department of over 1,400, trimming the total police budget by less than two percent.

But they made sure that within those moves was slashing Best’s salary by more than $100,000. They were effectively inviting her out the door. Earlier, when protestors surrounded Best’s house and disrupted both her family and the neighborhood, she asked the council to urge restraint among the protestors. The council—of course—declined. Fox News gleefully celebrated this as yet another example of the derangement and danger of the entire Democratic party. 
___

Thus, it was not a perfectly wonderful day for all women of color. You would be forgiven for concluding, “the Democrats will never figure it out.”

They sure haven’t in the city of Seattle. 

 

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(p.s. If you've ever wondered how Jared the Wunderkind rose to his knighthood, see here.)

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Delay the Vote? Easy Fix

By Don Varyu

July 30, 2020

In case you hadn't heard, Donald Trump has America up in arms again. 

This time he's floating the idea that the election in November might be dealayed--at his discretion. And he's being backed, as usual, by the always-helpful son-in-law Jared Kushner (he, having already accomplished previous assignments smashing the opiod epidemic, building the border wall, assuring full supplies of PPE for Covid workers, smoothing China diplomacy, achieving Middle East peace, and masterminding the President's reelection campaign).

Anyway, I don't see what all the fuss is about. 

Democrats should go ahead and vote on November 3rd. 

But every God-fearing, passionately patriotic Repuclican should demonstrate his Constitutionally granted rights by insisting on waiting to cast a vote until December 3rd. 

(GOP voters--if the doors aren't open at you polling place right when you get there, just hod on. I'm sure someone will show up soon...)
 

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(p.s. If you've ever wondered how Jared the Wunderkind rose to his knighthood, see here.)

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COVID-19: A Survivor's Story

By Don Varyu

August 4, 2020

We tell the COVID-19 story by the numbers; the latest count of infections and deaths. We tell it by geography; a trail of grief marked by the latest hot spots. And, of course, we tell it by politics: judging the worthiness of our elected leaders based on the decisions they make and the actions they take.

Tthis story never pauses. Any minute of the day you can find new updates online or on your television. It can be numbing.

Only when the story narrows to focus on individuals does it grab hold of us in a new and more compelling way. First there were the simple, often anguished testimonies of health care workers on the front lines, devoting long and dangerous shifts in nursing homes and intensive care units. They tend to the afflicted while constantly risking affliction themselves.

Now, you can also find moving tributes to individuals who have perished. Every day on MSNBC, anchor Nicole Wallace ends her program with a profile of one or two of lives claimed by the virus. It leaves you with a lump in your throat not just because of inherent sadness, but also because the people remembered are uniformly such outstanding human beings. In that vast middle ground between the anarchists and the raging racists lives a nation full of wonderful people who you would love to befriend.

For some reason, MSNBC’s website does not link to a compendium of these profiles. Too bad. So, the only way to see them is to tune in yourself.

But I can bring you one story that might evoke the same reaction. It’s told by a man who faced COVID death, but fortunately made it through to the other side. He’s a guy who lived in my neighborhood before he retired…whose kids went to the same schools mine did. He wouldn’t consider himself a hero in any sense, particularly just for contracting a disease. But he, too, is someone you would love to befriend.

Here’s the link…
 

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Read the C

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OK, This Answer is Easy

By Don Varyu

June 8, 2020

Let’s say you break your foot. You go to the doctor, and he says, “OK, here’s what what's going to happen. First, I'm going to set the break. Then I’ll put you in a cast. Then you’ll be on crutches for a while…then you’ll do your rehab and then you’ll be fine.”

Nobody objects. Everyone obeys. No one says being on crutches is a violation of his Constitutional rights. No one says his freedoms are being stolen. Everyone understands that this is what needs to be done to get better.

How do we all get better now?

WEAR A DAMN MASK, CLOWNS!

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