Forget Trump for a Minute...
/By Don Varyu
July 1, 2021
Well, that headline isn’t nearly as provocative as I intended. Because the answer is so obvious—every elected Republican in America is afraid of Donald Trump! So, let me change focus a little. Let's try this: should we be afraid of the big, bad Trump?
The answer is: it depends.
Gallup periodically asks voters if they identify as Democrat, Republican or Independent. Last fall, during election week, it was a dead heat— 31% for both the R’s and the D’s. No wonder the election was so close. Then, it changed. In polling right after the Jan. 6 Capitol attack, a big gap appeared--6 points in favor of the Dems, 30 to 24. People were turning off to Republicans in general, and Trump in particular.
This number expands when independents are asked which party they’re leaning towards. In the first quarter of this year, Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents outpaced their GOP counterparts, 49% to 40%.
Finally, the latest approval ratings from Quinnipiac show Trump’s unfavorables standing at 57% of all voters, compared to 37% favorable. If anyone other than Trump carried that same baggage of a 20-point deficit, the GOP hierarchy wouldn’t give a second look.
And now he's lost his voice on both Twitter and Facebook.
In total, this is all very bad news for Donald Trump. And thus, it seems inevitable that the GOP’s decision to ride the Trump train will run right off the rails. Granted, his lunatic followers will remain…but sane America is turning away.
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Now, for the counterpoint.
For fun, let’s just say some criminal conviction or malady forces Trump to the sidelines. Voila, problem solved, right? Not at all. Even if he goes away, the stink remains. And that stink is called Trumpism. Metaphorically, think of the difference like this: Trump was the single Chinese bat that first transmitted Covid to a human; Trumpism is the full-blown pandemic.
Here’s what I mean.
Virtually all elected Republicans are cowardly, and often mentally imbalanced. But they’re not stupid. They read the same poll numbers and demographic trends as anyone else. They know they will continue to falter as more young and minority voters enter the mix—while the GOP base literally dies off. There’s not real way around this; their demise is almost inevitable.
But they intend to go down fighting. The GOP is now waging a savage counterattack, intent on making sure it keeps control by any means necessary. Even if the party shrank to just one cranky old racist mumbling about the good old days of Tucker Carlson (in fact, that guy could be Tucker Carlson), that solitary idiot is the one they want running the country. Democracy be damned.
Trumpism is fully at arms, aiming to make this plan work. And it’s got to happen before it’s too late. They’ve pledged allegiance to Trump’s credo of “lie, cheat and steal”, and they’re leveraging it on every front. Much of the battle plan isn’t new. It’s only more virulent:
Voter suppression. State GOP legislatures are on fire trying to nullify minority voters.
Redistricting. A different means to the same end: sandwich more conservative Republicans into Congress.
The filibuster. At all costs, prevent a simple majority from deciding things in the U.S. Senate. Instead of a majority ruling, let’s keep it at 60%. If not, everything going on at the state level could be lost.
And to this list, they’ve now added a new one:
Ignite the Supreme Court: they’ve packed in enough dopey papal puppets; now it’s time to start pulling their strings.
Tellingly, a new phenomenon of Trumpism has now infected its troops: the end of shame. Where once a reporter or political opponent could uncover a “gotcha” to impale a bad Republican, that day has passed. ”Gotchas” don’t matter much anymore. Yes, paper-thin denials and preposterous evasions will come first. But that’s just for show. No matter how devastating the gotcha—no matter how unfair or unethical or comically hypocritical or even illegal—it will be laughed off. The subtext never changes--“So what? Who’s going to stop me?”
Welcome to Trumpism.
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The smart guys who do the Pod Save America podcast recently re-argued their case that the most important divide in American politics is not between Republicans and Democrats, but between those who are paying attention and those who aren’t.
Sadly, Trumpism is currently winning on that count. We are a nation exhausted by both Covid and politics, and it’s understandable to seek some relief. But as Democrats relax, the Big Lie keeps expanding.
Where’s the counterbalance from the clear majority of Americans who despise both Trump and his ways? How do we get more people to pay attention again?
Fortunately, there’s time to figure that out.
We’d better.
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