Will the GOP Commit Suicide?

By Don Varyu

February 12, 2021

As Republicans in the Senate decide on whether to vote to impeach Donald Trump, a larger determination will be made. Will the GOP—as it’s been defined for more than a century—cease to exist?

That all depends on what those Republican senators choose to do. Simply put, if they vote to convict (which seems highly unlikely), they have a chance for revival. But if they acquit, they may be slipping their collective neck into the noose.

To explain, let’s take a quick look backwards. In 2010, when the first class of hypocritical Tea Party brats joined Congress, it already seemed like America was moving to a three-party political system. These folks weren’t Republicans—they were their own thing. Into the Senate that year marched Marco Rubio and Nicki Haley and Ron Johnson and Mike Lee and Rand Paul. These poseurs had no use for the existing GOP, and they were more than happy to point that out. At first, the old liners grimaced and ignored them, convinced they were a passing fad. But then good old boy John Boehner was forced out of party leadership by Eric Cantor (a self-proclaimed Tea Partier). Next, Cantor himself was hoisted on his own petard for insufficient purity, losing a primary election to a fully baked radical named David Brat. (Really.)

The old liners weren’t amused anymore. The Tea Party decided to rebrand as the Freedom Caucus, with additional founders like Mark Meadows, Jim Jordan and Nick Mulvaney. You know these names because they’ve all slithered to the highest levels of American government, thanks to Donald Trump. The clearest example of what’s happened is Meadows. He was Trump’s last chief of staff, and he was also the guy who introduced the resolution to dump Boehner in 2015. In just five years, the GOP had been transformed...or reformed…or deformed, depending on how you look at it. Today it uncomfortably houses both the old-line conservatives and the Trumpies. And when the terrorists stormed into the Capitol yelling, “HANG MIKE PENCE!!", the divorce seemed final. But papers have not yet been signed.

The remnants of the Republican party and the Trump party are really two different things. They hang together under the GOP banner because they need each other. The Tea Partiers know they have no clue how to govern, and the old liners know they can’t get reelected without the crazies. However, the remaining old liners also know how to count votes, and they see the deck stacked against them. The impeachment vote will decide the future of this unholy alliance.
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Here’s what I mean.

Days before the last election, PEW Research reported that American voters self-identified as follows: Independents 34%; Democrats 33%; and Republicans 29%. Okay, that's a pretty even split of percentage points. Clearly, neither of the parties can go it alone. Both the GOP and the Democrats need to attract as many of those independents as they can in order to win a national election.

The table below is my estimate of how things stand right now. But the table needs some setup. It presents two different scenarios (for a national election). The first considers a traditional race between the two current parties...blue vs. red...on the top two lines.

The second scenario assumes a division of the current GOP into two new parties. Call them the Trump party, and a "third party" of the traditional GOP. That means the Dems against the the maximum capabilities of the two grey bars at the bottom of the table. Put another way, imagine Trump running again, or maybe Cruz or Hawley on that line. And for the new third party on the bottom, think of someone who reminds you of McCain or Romney.

The table divides percentage points for each GOP party, guesstimating their maximum appeal:

Along the top line, I’m suggesting that Democrats have the same approximate appeal in either scenario--running against either a continued Trump + old line combo...or against the Trump party and the new third party separately.

So, each of the current percentage points is divided among the scenarios:

• Of the total 34 independent points available in that column, the Democrats here take 24, because so many indies will remain turned off by the Capitol insurrection and by Trump. To that, add all of the 33 Democratic points, and peel off seven of the GOP’s 29. That’s means a maximum of 64% of the electorate. (To repeat, this is best case.)

• The second line assumes a continued GOP does not divide—it remains the sham marriage between the old line conservatives and the Trump true believers. I think so many independents are turned off by Trump that it means the current GOP can only get 10 of those 34 independent points. They gather no Democrats. But lets say 22 of the 29 GOP points remain loyal. (The remaining “never-Trumpers” go elsewhere).That gets the current GOP just 32% of the vote. That's abysmal.

• Next, lines three and four ask what happens if the GOP breaks into a Trump party and a distinct third party. The Trumpies will turn off virtually all independents; but let’s give them five points anyway. They get no Democrats, and maybe 25 of the 29 GOP points stay put. That adds up to only 30 points—even worse than the current combed GOP. Ouch.

• Finally, what about the clean-break, third party run by GOP Trump-haters? Here, the GOP essentially returns to its roots, deliberately tossing Trump to the curb. Thus, they might get half of the 34% indie vote. They could also steal, say, five points from Democrats if they run an appealing, middle-of-the-road candidate. And let’s say they capture 27 of the 29 GOP points. That takes this third party all the way up to 49%--clearly the best option for the GOP.

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  Now, maybe you realize the giant hole in this table. A Trump wing and a third-party wing can’t both maximize their vote totals as shown here. (In other words, Trumpies can't get 25 points from Republicans, and the new third party 27 at the same time--there's only a total of 29 to go around). Their "maximums" only occur if the other option doesn't exist.
  
  But consider those two options. It seems like the only viable one for the GOP is to banish Trump altogether. Look what happens if they continue to embrace him--lines two or three. They get crushed. On the other hand, the bottom line offers a more compelling case to the political middle, including both independents and some Democrats.
  
  Now, consider all three of those GOP lines. The logical choice is a return to normalcy. But in order for that to happen, the current GOP senators have to make a stand now. They'd have to set aside their selfish, short term election needs and send Trump packing. In other words, convict him. If they let go, his stench will loom over their party for the next four years. They'd be fitting themselves for the noose.
  
  Or, put another way, maybe the best thing for Democrats is for impeachment to fail. In that case, they can run the same horrific videos from inside the Capitol invasion for the next four years, against any Republican in the House or Senate who voted to protect the man the independents hate.
  
  Have fun running against that.
  

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