Ukraine: After the War…

By Don Varyu

April 11, 2022

It’s impossible to predict how the Ukraine savagery will end. Maybe the Ukrainians will manage to repel the Russians. Maybe a truce will wind up ceding part of eastern Ukraine to Putin. Or, maybe the invaders will prevail and occupy the nation—which will not wind up qualifying as any kind a victory at all.

In any case, one thing should be certain: for any outcome, economic and diplomatic sanction against the Russians should remain in full force until that nation collapses. It must crumble. If that takes increased pressure, fine. If it takes more weaponry to the Ukrainians, fine. If it takes a decade, fine. Russia must be thrown back a century. Because they deserve it.

There are a couple forces that could prevent this.

(1) First, Western Europe will find it increasingly difficult to continue starving itself of Soviet energy imports. Foremost among the nations, Germany made a huge mistake in building the Nord Stream pipelines (one working, another still under construction). Years ago, Germany chose to believe that Putin would become a peaceful and reliable member of the European community. Oops. But they are hardly alone. Overall, the European Union relies on Russia for about three-quarters of its natural gas imports, and more than two-thirds of its crude oil.

While European imports have fallen consistently over the last decade, dependence is still high. Shutting down those imports would go a long way to shutting down Russia itself. The current partial depletions of Soviet energy imports has accelerated European actions to further spur development of natural energy sources—a sad silver lining.

(2) Secondly, there may be a natural sympathy for Soviet citizens: “it’s not right that all of those people should suffer because of the actions of one madman.” And to be sure, there are many Russians who oppose him. When Putin last ran for President in 2018, there were widespread reports of fraud at the polls—all in Putin’s favor. But still, he received only 77% of the votes. Somehow, a quarter of voters were willing to go on record as opposing him. Then, in the national legislative elections last year—despite Putin barring key rival candidates to his Russia United party—Putin’s puppets tallied only half of the ballots. The other half split among several opposing parties. So, there is resistance.

But Russia also contains a sizeable number of supporters for both Putin and his criminal Ukrainian attack. Some of these supporters even think it would be fine to just drop a nuclear bomb on Ukraine to settle the whole thing. This insane idea extends the incomprehensible theory of Putin’s entire invasion: “the more we punish them, the more likely they are to surrender.” Good luck with that. Senseless.

If the Russians do prevail, they will inherit two things they don’t want: a wasteland of their own making; and a resistance effort that has little precedent in recent times. Russian administrators and military on the ground will constitute target practice. You may recall the prolonged U.S. casualties after “taking” Baghdad. That will pale in comparison to Ukraine, because the West will not stop providing the Ukrainians with weapons and strategic resources. It will become Russia’s new quagmire.

Which is why all current sanctions—and any new ones we can invent—need to remain in full force no matter what. Putin should be treated as what he is—an international outlaw. Economically, Russia must be slowly strangled. The pressure on Russian citizens in cities and across the countryside must become so acute that rebellion against the Putin regime is inevitable. Realistically, only Russian citizens can bring the change that the world needs.

And whatever privations they those Russian people endure. they will be minimal compared to what the Ukrainians are suffering.

Whichever way the war ends, the Western alliance must remain ironclad to banish Putin. He must wither and disappear.

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