Election Lesson: The 42%
/By Don Varyu
Nov. 9, 2022
Democrats, no matter what the eventual outcome of the Congressional races, are high fiving in the wake of the midterms. Their showing was much better than anyone expected—Democratic or Republican. But the primary reason for the result was not something wise or good that the Democrats devised; it was something stupid and cynical done for them by the Supreme Court—overturning abortion rights. A national exit poll showed that two in five voters said their “anger” about the abortion ruling most motivated their vote...and among that subset, Democratic voters prevailed more than four-to-one.
There’s a lesson to be learned here.
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What did the Supreme Court ruling do? Yes, it overturned a right that had been on the books for half a century. And yes, it further disrobed an ideological high court willing to do legal backflips to further an extreme right-wing agenda.
But one step beneath the obvious lies a more important truth. If you try to consider which one group the ruling most affects, you stop short, because the answer is, it affected ALL groups. All geographies, all races, every income group (except the very rich, who can always afford what they need.) For example, imagine a 63-year- old grandmom, a loyal Republican, who listens to Fox News all day. She may have a left-wing daughter with whom she will never talk politics. But any political differences dissolve once they face the idea of a teen granddaughter, someday raped, with no voice whatsoever on whether or not she can be legally forced to have that baby. To repeat, overturning Roe impacted everyone.
Ever since the political arrival of Donald Trump, Democratic-leaning media have reflexively jumped to defend everyone who Trump gleefully offended—racial minorities, liberals, “elites”, the gender-tormented, war heroes who crossed him, the physically disabled—I know you could add more. These people deserve defense. But separately, they share one trait--they are distinct voting minorities. To repeat, abortion rights concern everyone. Identity grievances tend to concern just those aggrieved.
So, is there another “big umbrella” thrust that could capture a much wider swath of voters?
Yep. And there’s one man who proved it.
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When John Fetterman announced his Senate run in Pennsylvania, he adopted the slogan, “Every county, every vote.” It sounds like political pablum, but he actually followed that path. In doing so, he refused to bypass the farms and small towns which are home to Trump’s MAGA base in his state. He didn’t have to win all of their votes; he just asked them to listen. Enough believed that they carried him to the Senate. After victory, Fetterman proclaimed, “this race is for the future of every community, all across Pennsylvania. Every town or person that ever felt left behind.” There is grievance all around us.
Fetterman also recognized an essential numbers game at work. No matter the level of discrimination they’ve suffered, just 11% of voters are black. Similarly, 11% are Latino. Each of their votes counts, but by focusing so intently on their support, are Democrats making the mistake of writing off a voting block four times the size of either of those racial minorities?
Such a block exists: white non-college educated voters. These are the people that Fetterman bothered to talk to. They are 42% of the electorate—middle class, working class, union-employed people who once were overwhelmingly loyal to Democrats…but whom Democrats simply took for granted. It wasn’t that the 42% stopped listening. Democrats just stopped talking to them. So those voters wound up supporting Trump. Even if they didn’t believe every word he said, or appreciate how he said it, at least he was talking to them. He cared enough to recognize them.
If Democrats want to win in 2024, they need to do two things. First, heed Fetterman’s lead and talk to the 42%. And second, find another issue like the abortion ruling that will galvanize all demographics.
But does such an issue exist? You bet.
More on that in a future post…
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